I’m not usually a betting man but I recently got chatting with a work colleague of mine who does like a flutter now and again. He started asking me about who I thought would win this years Tour de France and it got me thinking....
Below are the latest general classification odds for this years Tour de France. I found the list at a website called
velotips.com. The one certainty on this list is that Alejandro Valverde (Caisse d’Epargne) won’t be starting the Tour so don’t go putting money on him.
Who do I think will win the Tour? Simple, Contador. Unless Contador crashes, gets ill, or his own team mates turn on him (very possible) I really can’t see anyone else finishing the race quicker than him. Of course there is a chance Contador won't win.
Of the other main contenders I think Lance Armstrong (Astana) is too old. Even though it is being reported
Big Tex is looking super lean I think he'll do well to finish top 5. The bookies have been caught up in the Lance hype and, for my money, his odds are way too short.
As for Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) he certainly has the potential to finish in yellow but I think he’s another year or two away from winning. Having said that I think Schleck will win the
Malliot Blanc for best young rider.
Cadel Evans (Silence Lotto), well he’s going to finish second of course.
Of the remaining main contenders we have Denis Menchov (Rabobank), Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team) and Levi Leipheimer (Astana). I just can’t see Menchov achieving the double. Of course he has the talent to do it, he’s proved that by winning the Giro. I just don’t think he’ll have the stamina to do it.
Leipheimer will be the ultimate super domestic at this years Tour but he won’t win.
That leaves mountain goat, Sastre. Let us not forget that Sastre is the current Tour de France champion and a worthy one at that. He rode himself into some pretty decent form at the Giro this year finishing a credible fourth. With the entire Cervelo Test Team focused around their captain it is very possible we could see Sastre take the
Malloit Jaune in Paris for the second year running. If I were going to put 10 quid on somebody to win the Tour I think it would have to be Sastre. With generous odds currently at 27/1 that could potentially make for a tidy pay day.
For a super dark horse bet I would stick a couple of quid on this years Paris-Nice winner Luis León Sánchez (Caisse d’Epargne). With Valverde out of the picture Sánchez could be this years surprise package.
Latest betting odds for the 2009 Tour de France Winner
General Classification Betting Odds @ 10:00 (20/06/09)
Contador at 2.1 (11/10) with bwin and PaddyPower
Armstrong at 8.00 (7/1) with Stan James
A. Schleck at 9.00 (8/1) with PaddyPower and Unibet
Evans at 13.00 (12/1) with Unibet
Menchov at 17.00 (16/1) with Ladbrokes and Sportingbet and PaddyPower
Sastre at 28.00 (27/1) with Unibet
Leipheimer at 40.00 (39/1) with Unibet
Kreuziger at 55.00 (54/1) with Expekt
F. Schleck at 67.00 (66/1) with Bet365
Rogers at 67.00 (66/1) with Bet365 and Sky Bet
Soler at 67.00 (66/1) with Stan James
Cunego at 101.00 (100/1) with Stan James
Gesink at 101.00 (100/1) with Stan James
L.L. Sanchez at 101.00 (100/1) with Bet365 and Stan James
Pellizotti at 101.00 (100/1) with Betfred
Kloden at 101.00 (100/1) with Betfred
Vandevelde at 101.00 (100/1) with Blue Square and Bet365 and Betfred
Kirchen at 151.00 (150/1) with Stan James
Devolder at 151.00 (150/1) with Bet365 and PaddyPower
Valverde at 151.00 (150/1) with Blue Square
Periero at 150.00 (100/1) with Expekt